Some aspects in estimating warranty and post‐warranty repair demands

When customers buy a product, they are often eligible for free repairs for a certain warranty period. In this article, we study some important aspects, which are often overlooked in the literature but are of interest to the manufacturer, in estimating both warranty and post‐warranty repair demands. We consider that the installed base of the product (i.e., the number of units of the product actually in use) varies with time due to both new sales and units being taken out of service. When estimating warranty and post‐warranty repair demands, we explicitly address the fact that customers may not always request repairs for failed units. For the case where the product failure time distribution is exponential, we derive the closed‐form expressions for both types of repair demands of a single unit and of the time‐varying installed base. The insights into some risk‐related quantities are also presented. Furthermore, the proposed model is extended by considering delayed warranty claims that are frequently seen in practice. Numerical examples illustrate that understanding both types of repair demands and the related decision variables is important for managing the obligatory and profitable repair services. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 499–511, 2013     

基于信息熵的模糊控制系统稳定性分析

鉴于模糊控制系统稳定性分析方法的复杂性和不完善性 ,用信息论的观点思考这一问题。依据李雅普诺夫稳定性分析原理 ,通过引入信息熵的概念 ,对模糊控制系统的稳定性分析方法进行深入研究和探讨。在综合考虑系统动态品质和稳定边界要求的基础上 ,给出了一般模糊控制系统的稳定性定义 ,并通过严格的数学推导证明了使模糊控制系统稳定的一个充分条件     

电磁发射超高速弹丸气动特性数值分析

采用数值计算方法研究了超高速弹丸的气动流场特性,重点分析了弹丸再入段的气动流场特性.利用风洞试验数据验证了S-A和k-ωSST湍流模型的预测精度,计算结果表明,在法向力预测上,两种湍流模型的预测精度较高,均在2％以内.在轴向力预测上,S-A湍流模型的预测精度较高,误差约为4.6％.当弹丸以大攻角再入时,弹丸横流效应较为...     

Fullerene bisadduct stabilizers: The effect of different addition positions on inhibiting the autocatalytic decomposition of nitrocellulose absorbed nitroglycerin

To explore the effect of different positions and number of pyrrolidine bound to the carbon cage on the stabilization effect of fulleropyrrolidine derivatives to nitrocellulose (NC)/nitroglycerine (NG), we synthesized N-(4-methoxy) phenylpyrrolidine-C₆₀ and four different of bis(N-(4-methoxy) phenylpyrrolidine)-C₆₀ compounds through Prato reaction. Their structures were characterized by UV–vis, ¹H NMR, ¹³C NMR, high-resolution mass spectroscopy, and single-crystal X-ray diffraction. Their stabilization effect to NC/NG were investigated using differential scanning calorimetry, methyl violet, vacuum stabilization effect, weight loss, and accelerating rate calorimeter tests. The results indicated these compounds had excellent stabilization effect to NC/NG. The stabilization effect of the fulleropyrrolidine bisadducts to NC/NG is significantly better than that of fulleropyrrolidine monoadduct and C₆₀. Moreover, the position where pyrrolidine binds to fullerene in fulleropyrrolidine bisadducts is different, and its stabilization effect to NC is also different. The stabilization effect order of different bisadduct isomers to nitrocellulose is as follows: e-edge > trans-2> cis-2> trans-3. Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) and FT-IR were used to study the stabilization mechanism of fulleropyrrolidine derivatives to NC/NG. The EPR results also show that fulleropyrrolidine bisadducts with different addition sites have different abilities to absorb nitroxide, and their ability is better than that of the monoadduct and C₆₀, which is consistent with the results of stabilization effect performance test.     

采用遗传算法的弹托迎风窝结构设计

针对一体化弹丸弹托易分离性和轻质化的设计要求，构建弹托迎风窝参数化外形模型，基于激波和膨胀波理论建立弹托气动力计算模型；以弹托分离加速度和弹托质量综合最优为目标函数，采用遗传算法对弹托迎风窝的外形参数进行优化设计，从而得到弹托迎风窝的优化外形。以中口径尾翼稳定脱壳穿甲弹的弹托设计为例，采用提出的优化设计模型对其迎风窝结构进行优化设计，并采用基于动网格技术的弹托分离仿真模型验证其最优性。仿真结果表明：所提优化模型能够得到最优的弹托迎风窝结构；针对现有的中口径尾翼稳定脱壳穿甲弹，可进一步对其弹托结构进行优化，以提高其分离快速性。     

电磁发射弹丸飞行弹道仿真

针对电磁发射弹丸飞行弹道进行仿真研究，在建立刚体六自由度飞行弹道模型的基础上，采用时频分析和涡流分析方法，建立电磁-动力学耦合模型分析弹丸出膛时由于膛内振动带来的炮口扰动，采用动网格技术建立电磁-气动耦合模型分析弹托分离产生的气动扰动，从而得到了电磁发射弹丸的飞行弹道模型。以得克萨斯大学先进技术研究所设计的IAT-HVP为例，仿真分析了弹丸以1117 m/s初速、0°射角出膛时弹丸出口扰动对弹体速度和气动特性的影响，并得到其飞行200 m的弹道曲线。仿真结果表明，受电磁发射一体化弹丸出口扰动的影响，弹体落点相比理想弹道产生了24%的偏差，其中炮口扰动引起的偏差最大，其次是弹托分离。     

系统与应用相结合 加强科学计算研究

科学计算是计算机学科和应用学科交叉融合的产物。文章阐述了科学计算的内涵和作用,论述了其科学基础和关键技术,及其对高性能计算机技术的挑战,提出了从科学计算应用基础研究和艾级计算机关键技术研究着手,加强科学计算交叉研究和复合型人才培养的思考。     

加快政治工作信息的数字化改造

数字化是政治工作主动实现与计算机接轨的必然选择,是政治工作生存方式和知识表达方式的变革。政治工作数字化的技术路径包括文献研究、专家预测、改造重组、实验推演。要加强自主创新,努力突破政工知识表示与推理技术瓶颈,全面推进政治工作数字化。     

网络舆论战的心理学意义

从舆论战和网络舆论战的概念和特点出发,阐述了心理学在网络舆论战中的重要作用。综合心理学理论和舆论传播理论分析了网络舆论形成的心理机制,得出了网络舆论是通过个体心理和群体心理两个阶段而形成的结论。根据这个结论,提出了网络舆论引导的具体策略。即在个体层面上,通过操纵信息来影响人的认知;在群体层面上,通过塑造引导者主体的可信性和喜爱性,以及网络技术手段来增强舆论引导的效果。最后,指出了网络舆论战的发展前景在于充分考虑受众的心理,有针对性地进行舆论引导。